Morgan Stanley has emerged as the clear favorite to handle SpaceX’s massive initial public offering, three people with direct knowledge of the matter told Media. The bank’s relationship with CEO Elon Musk, built over 15 years of major deals, puts it ahead of rivals Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan in what could become one of the largest stock market debuts in history.
The IPO might raise more than $25 billion and could happen as soon as next year. But nothing’s set in stone yet. Musk hasn’t made his final pick, and the whole thing depends on whether markets stay friendly to big tech offerings.
Right now, a select group of banks is locked in what insiders call a bake-off—basically a competition to win the top spots in the deal. Four people familiar with the process say Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are all vying for roles in the syndicate that will sell SpaceX shares to investors.
The prize everyone wants? The lead left underwriting position. That’s Wall Street speak for the main bank that runs the show, sets the price, and takes home the biggest fees. But sources warn there’s no certainty about who lands where. The discussions are confidential, and all three banks declined to comment. SpaceX didn’t respond to our request either.
What makes this selection process tricky is timing. Two people close to the matter said a decision could come before the end of year on lead banks. The full syndicate would get finalized afterward. Still, plans keep progressing while everyone involved stays cautious. The IPO remains contingent on market conditions. If things go south, SpaceX could easily choose to delay or abandon the offering altogether.
Musk’s ties to Morgan Stanley aren’t just professional—they run deep. The relationship started dating back at least 15 years, making the bank widely viewed as the leading contender to run the syndicate of underwriters. Three people say no other bank comes close to matching that history.
Look at the track record. Morgan Stanley helped take Tesla public in 2010, working alongside Goldman Sachs (which had the lead left back then), JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank. Years later, when Musk bought Twitter in his controversial 2022 acquisition, Morgan Stanley led the financing for the deal. Now rebranded as X, that transaction showed the bank would stick with Musk even on risky bets.
The connection runs deeper than corporate deals. A former Morgan Stanley banker named Jared Birchall now runs Excession, Musk’s family office in Austin, Texas. Birchall manages the billionaire’s personal assets and has advised Musk on countless Wall Street dealings. Recently, Musk even tapped Anthony Armstrong, another Morgan Stanley banker from the Twitter deal, to become chief financial officer of his artificial intelligence venture xAI. When you put all these pieces together, the pattern becomes clear.
SpaceX Signals 2026 Launch Date
Last week, SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen sent a staff memo that got people talking. He informed staff the company is preparing for a public offering in 2026. But Johnsen didn’t sugarcoat things. “Whether it actually happens, when it happens, and at what valuation are still highly uncertain,” he wrote. The thinking goes that if the team can execute brilliantly and markets cooperate, this public offering could raise a truly significant amount of capital.
That sum—possibly north of $25 billion as Media previously reported—would make this one of the biggest public listings ever globally. The decision to go public caught plenty of observers by surprise. After all, SpaceX enjoys status as one of the world’s largest private companies. Musk has long expressed a clear preference for keeping SpaceX private, away from quarterly earnings calls and shareholder pressure.
So what changed? People familiar with his thinking indicated that SpaceX’s growing valuation and the runaway success of Starlink prompted a real shift in strategy. When you’re sitting on a business this valuable, going public starts making sense—especially if you need massive amounts of capital for even bigger ambitions.
The Starlink Effect Changes Everything
SpaceX started out long known for its dominant rocket launch business. But it’s become the world’s largest satellite operator through Starlink, which operates a network of nearly 10,000 satellites beaming broadband internet down to consumers, governments, and enterprise customers worldwide.
There’d been previous speculation about Starlink going public on its own as a separate company. Now people say the IPO will likely include both businesses under one roof, though plans remain subject to change. That makes sense when you see how Johnsen described the use of capital raised. The money will increase the flight rate of the next-generation Starship rocket under development. It’ll also deploy AI data centers in space—an effort complementary to the Starlink business that would closely tie the company to the white-hot AI boom.
Oh, and there’s more. SpaceX plans to build something called “Moonbase Alpha”—a base on the lunar surface that Musk has mentioned before. As a core contractor in NASA’s Artemis moon program, the company holds a $4 billion contract to land astronauts on the lunar surface using Starship. But the real dream? Sending humans and robots to Mars, which represents Musk’s long-held vision for the entire venture.
Political Winds Blow Favorably
Revenues from Starlink keep contributing to Starship development. The rocket’s envisioned to serve as a Mars transportation system for eventual colonies on the red planet. During his recent stint as government efficiency czar under U.S. President Donald Trump, Musk pushed hard for greater American focus on Mars missions. He also advocated for Jared Isaacman, a former associate, to lead NASA. Isaacman became NASA chief just this Tuesday.
That political alignment could matter. Meanwhile, Starlink remains SpaceX’s top revenue-generating business. The company’s expanding its satellite network into the wireless market through Starlink Mobile, which it trademarked back in October. All these pieces—rockets, satellites, AI, Mars, favorable government relations—create a compelling story for potential investors. Whether Morgan Stanley ultimately wins the coveted role of running this blockbuster offering should become clear in coming weeks.
