Elon Musk’s vision for Tesla robots goes far beyond factory floors. The tech billionaire believes humanoid robots could become the biggest product of all time, surpassing even cell phones, as investors signed off on his $1tn pay package Thursday that requires him to deliver a million AI bots within the decade.
Optimus, the company’s droid, has posed with Kim Kardashian, appeared in Tesla showrooms, and served burgers at the company’s Hollywood diner. Since its unveiling at a Tesla showcase in 2022, Musk has suggested this human-like robot will play a huge role in homes and lives of people across the world. The grander vision positions these machines alongside self-driving robotaxis and Cybertrucks as key to establishing Tesla’s foothold in the artificial intelligence landscape.
Silicon Valley’s Humanoid Gold Rush
Silicon Valley is gunning hard for humanoids, and the numbers tell a compelling story. A report released by Morgan Stanley on Friday predicted Apple, which is reportedly looking into the robots, could potentially earn $133bn a year from them by 2040. Foxconn is reported to be deploying them at its Nvidia factory in Texas, signaling that the big bet on human-shaped machines is rooted in reality rather than science fiction.
The idea combines advanced AI within a human-shaped shell, creating an astonishingly powerful combination in theory. This approach lets the tech interact with the physical world around it, including us. Multiple companies have sought to develop human-like robots for industrial use, including the UK robotics firm Humanoid, while others are racing to insert the tech into homes for menial chores like emptying the dishwasher and folding clothes.
Forrester analyst Brian Hopkins wrote in a blog post that falling costs of components, combined with improvements to robot dexterity and AI, are helping make humanoid robots feasible for a variety of different settings. From warehouses and restaurants to elder care and security, new use cases are gaining traction fast. If current trajectories hold, these machines could disrupt physical-service industries significantly by 2030.
Musk previously told investors the potential is significant beyond the vehicle business over time. He went one step further after his pay deal was approved, saying he believed it could be the biggest product of all time, far bigger than cell phones or anything else. The highly-publicised Neo from tech firm 1X, slated to launch in 2026, will cost $20,000 for fetching items and other household tasks. However, the WSJ reported a caveat: it was actually controlled by a person wearing a virtual reality headset.
Musk has suggested Tesla robots might boost Tesla AI ambitions, particularly in advancing artificial general intelligence. “Tesla AI might play a role in AGI, given that it trains against the outside world, especially with the advent of Optimus,” he wrote on X in 2022. These AGI systems are capable of matching human abilities, representing a key milestone in the AI landscape.
The whopping pay deal requires Musk to complete tasks including delivering a million AI bots over the next decade. Investors who agree with this vision see Tesla’s droid as more than just a novelty. Elsewhere in the space, Boston Dynamics’ hydraulic humanoid Atlas has captivated millions on YouTube with gymnastics and dance routines. Viral videos of its leaps, bounds, somersaults, and backflips have shown advances in robotics over the years.
Scientists are seizing the AI boom to boost their capabilities with systems enabling them to undertake more complex tasks. When Atlas was retired last year, it was replaced with a newer, fully electric model that developers said could contort its metal frame in even more ways. Yet many roboticists the media has spoken to over the years have rolled their eyes about tech firms shaping robots like humans.
Practically, there’s little reason for robots to have legs. The mechanics and hardware involved in creating machine legs are far more intensive. As one scientist put it: “Wheels are so much more efficient.” And don’t get them started on why a robot doesn’t need a head. Psychologically though, humanoids have long been a human fascination, something reflected through decades of science fiction.
You need only look at the legacy of characters like Star Wars’ C-3PO, Futurama’s Bender, or the Terminator to see why you might sometimes feel more comfortable around something closely resembling us. Back in reality, humanoid machines have often been less polished, gimmicky, clumsy, and buggy than their fictional counterparts. But that appears to be changing with the likes of Optimus and sleeker droids that edge you closer to living in an uncanny valley.
Tesla’s droid has been appearing in more public settings of late, serving burgers and popcorn to customers at the company’s Hollywood diner. Sam Altman, boss of ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, said in May he doesn’t think the world is ready for humanoids, while simultaneously describing it as an incoming moment. There’s no love lost between him and Elon Musk, but on this occasion they seem to be on the same page that the robots are on their way. Musk certainly has the power, influence, and cash to make it happen.